Gulf maritime tension escalates as Iran-linked vessels shadow US carrier group near Strait of Hormuz
US Fifth Fleet confirmed on 13 July that three vessels shadowed the USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group in the lower Arabian Gulf for about eighteen hours before withdrawing. Naval intelligence assesses the vessels as operated by or for Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps Naval (IRGCN) units. It is the longest direct IRGCN contact with a US carrier group since April 2024. It also fits a pattern of step-by-step escalation that analysts at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) describe as deliberate pressure testing ahead of nuclear negotiation milestones. Lloyd's of London Joint War Risk Committee has kept higher war risk premium bands on the Strait of Hormuz corridor since March. Brokers report clients asking for updated risk assessments for staff and vessel movements across the Gulf. If you have operations, staff or supply chain exposure in the Arabian Gulf, UAE, Oman, Bahrain or Qatar, the risk has gone up in concrete terms. Review emergency evacuation plans, duty-of-care procedures and travel advisory status now. The threat is assessed as most acute in the 48 to 72 hours after any declared breakdown in negotiations.